Black hole mergers: do gas discs lead to spin alignment?. (arXiv:1211.0284v1 [astro-ph.CO])

Black hole mergers: do gas discs lead to spin alignment?. (arXiv:1211.0284v1 [astro-ph.CO]):
In this Letter we revisit arguments suggesting that the Bardeen-Petterson
effect can coalign the spins of a central supermassive black hole binary
accreting from a circumbinary (or circumnuclear) gas disc. We improve on
previous estimates by adding the dependence on system parameters, and noting
that the nonlinear nature of warp propagation in a thin viscous disc affects
alignment. This reduces the disc's ability to communicate the warp, and can
severely reduce the effectiveness of disc-assisted spin alignment. We test our
predictions with a Monte Carlo realization of random misalignments and
accretion rates and we find that the outcome depends strongly on the spin
magnitude. We estimate a generous upper limit to the probability of alignment
by making assumptions which favour it throughout. Even with these assumptions,
about 40% of black holes with $a \gtrsim 0.5$ do not have time to align with
the disc. If the residual misalignment is not small and it is maintained down
to the final coalescence phase this can give a powerful recoil velocity to the
merged hole. Highly spinning black holes are thus more likely of being subject
to strong recoils, the occurrence of which is currently debated.